By: Maria-Paula
The Virginia Commonwealth University’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs released the results of its most recent Commonwealth Poll between former President Donald Trump (R) and President Joe Biden (D) conducted before the July 13, 2024, assassination attempt on former President Trump.
The Summer 2024 Commonwealth Poll conducted between June 24 and July 3, 2024, 112 days (about 3 and a half months) before Election Day shows President Joe Biden trails former President Trump in Virginia 39% to 36%. President Biden’s approval hovers around the same support number, at 36% of voters approving of his job as president. Pushed to choose a candidate, undecided voters closed the gap to 50% for each of the two candidates. 
The difference is less than the margin of error for this poll, but the results reflect a shift toward former President Trump since the Winter 2023 Commonwealth Poll, which had President Biden leading former President Trump 42% against 39%. 
For the remaining candidates, 9% of Virginians in the new poll say they would vote for Robert Kennedy Jr., 2% for Jill Stein and 1% for Cornel West. 
Three-quarters of Democrats say they would vote for President Biden, while 82% of Republicans would vote for former President Trump. Six percent of both Democrats and Republicans indicate they would vote for Robert Kennedy Jr. 
Also, Independents are most likely to vote for Robert Kennedy Jr., with 27% supporting him. Black Virginians, 46% are more likely to vote for President Biden, but this number has dropped by 20 points since the winter poll, when 67% supported him.
President Bidens approval showed that 36%, just under 4 in 10 Virginians approve of his job performance with 58% disapprove him. 
There has not been much change since the Winter 2023 Commonwealth Poll. Approval is extremely polarized by political party, with 69% of Democrats approving of President Biden’s performance and 25% disapproving compared to 8% of Republicans approving and 90% disapproving. 
Disapproval has increased significantly among Independent Virginians, with 68% disapproving and 20% approving compared to 37% disapproving and 30% approving in the winter poll. 
Over half of Black Virginians, 54%, approve of President Biden’s performance, while 40% of female respondents were more likely to approve him than male respondents at 32%. Hispanic respondents, 46%, were also more likely to approve than 36% non-Hispanic residents.
Regarding former President Trump’s felony conviction in May, 53% of voters say they are less likely to vote for him. 45% of Virginias Independents say they are less likely to vote for him. 
The results were heavily polarized by the political parties.  Only 4% of Democrats are more likely to vote for former President Trump considering the conviction, with 90% saying it makes them less likely. Conversely, just over 6 in 10 Republican respondents say the conviction makes them more likely to vote for former President Trump, with 18% saying they are less likely.
45% down, a drop on his overall popularity, Republican Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin’s disapproval rating rose 3 points, since the Wilder School’s Winter 2023 Commonwealth Poll in December. 
Governor Youngkin’s approval varies across demographics of Virginians. Democrats were more likely to disapprove his performance at 62% to an approval of 23%. On the other hand, 78% of Republicans were more likely to approve him over a 10% disapproval. 
Amongst the Independent Virginians, 49% approve of him against 21% who don’t. 
Approval ratings also fluctuated based on household income with the highest approval from 71% of the population earning less than $20,000 annually and those earning between $70k and $100k at 61%. 
The lowest approvals were in three income categories between $20,000 and $70,000.
Governor Youngkin’s approval was higher among Black Virginians, 51%, than in the winter poll, 36%, and among Hispanic respondents, 35% approve of his performance compared with 51% of non-Hispanic respondents.
Regarding the U.S. Senate race in Virginia, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine has a double-digit lead of 49% over Republican Hung Cao at 38%. Preferences were heavily polarized by political party, with 89% of Democrats favoring Senator Kaine and 81% of Republicans favoring Hung Cao. 48% of Independents said they would vote for Senator Kaine.
The rising cost of living was cited by voters as the top issue influencing their decision to vote. Women’s reproductive rights was the second most important determinant while immigration in the Southern border came third with approximately 52% of Virginia voters viewing the country’s immigration system as a major problem. 
For Democrats, the most important issues are women’s reproductive rights at 42% and the rising cost of living at 20%. The most important issues for Republicans are the rising cost of living at 43% and immigration at 23%. For Independents, the rising cost of living at 36% and women’s reproductive rights at 17% were the top two issues. 
Female Virginians were more likely to view women’s reproductive rights as the most important issue at 34% compared with male Virginians at12%.
“I think the results show that Virginia is truly a ‘battleground state’ for the presidency. The drop by 20 points to 46% of Black Virginians since December, where 67% supported Biden, should be concerning relative to turnout affecting congressional races, in competitive districts 7 and 2,” said the 66th governor of Virginia, L. Douglas Wilder.